Likelihood: One at a time

Sensitivity ∆ (delta) Events page for Likelihood shows the changes in overall event likelihoods when the event likelihood due to one or more covering threats/sources is changed. If you change an event's likelihood given a single threat/source, you'll see the effect on the events' overall likelihood.

When the likelihood of an event is changed due to a threat/source, we do not adjust the other event likelihoods (normalize to 1) as we do when we change the threat likelihoods Sensitivity Δ delta Threats/Sources.

Likelihood's Sensitivity Delta Events - One user/group at a time Let's look at the information that is contained in this graph piece by piece.    

First, the likelihood of the covering threats/sources are depicted by the vertical blue bars and shown numerically at the side of each bar or by hovering on the bars:

Secondly, the likelihoods of events due to the covering threats/sources are shown by small circles representing each of the events. 

Hovering on a circle displays a tooltip with the event name it designates to, the likelihood due to the covering threat/source, and Delta (0% indicates that the likelihood is based on actual participant judgments). 

Below it shows that the event Minor Train Work Accident has the highest likelihood (31.8%) due to Inadequately Trained Staff.

The lines connecting the events from one threat/source serve to help you find where a particular event lies as you move from one threat/source to another.

Finally, the intersection of the event line segment with the overall axis (gray vertical bar)  shows the overall likelihoods of the events which are also displayed at the right with the event names.

To temporarily change the likelihood of an event given a covering threat/source, and see how it will affect the overall likelihoods of the events, simply drag the event circles up (increase likelihood) or down (decrease likelihood). The %delta will increase or decrease as you drag the plot up or down.

From above, we see that the original likelihood of Minor Train Work Accident due to Inadequacy Trained Staff is 31.8% and it's the 7th highest likelihood in the overall event likelihoods at the right. As we increase its likelihood by dragging the green circle upward (Delta=+65.8), we see that Minor Train Work Accident becomes the third-highest likelihood in the overall event likelihoods. 

You can select/deselect threats/sources so you can view the events for fewer covering threats/sources. This is done by checking/unchecking the checkboxes to the right of the threats/sources nodes.

Alternatively, you can use the pagination options to view fewer threats/sources at a time: 

The Page size is the number of threats/sources to display on each page, e.g. view 5 covering sources/threats at a time. 

The Page Num is to paginate to another list or set of threats/sources if there is pagination. 

Select Participants and Groups

You can select to display results for one participant or group using

Clicking the  button will open a window where you can select a participant or a group.

You can use the prev and the next  buttons to cycle through each participant or group.

Filter Events

By default, all events are displayed. 

You can select to display the top or bottom 5, 10, or 25 events based on the "All Participants" group likelihoods. 

The Advanced filter, allows you to select a specific number for the top N, and base it on another group or participant. 

The select /deselection option, allows you to check/uncheck the events. 

The filter by events attributes, filter the events base on the attributes specified on the Events page. 

The show risks only / Show opportunities only are applicable for the Mixed model where events can be Risk or Opportunity. 

Advanced Mode Options

When the Advanced mode is ON, you will see the advanced options on this page:

1. Combined Input Option (CIS)

If the Combined Input Option (CIS) is on (see below) then results for individuals are computed by combining the likelihoods derived from judgments/ratings for which they had roles, with the combined results for any parts of the model where they did not have a role.

2. Apply User Priorities

If priorities (weights) have been specified for participants, you can use the "User Priorities" check box will enable you to apply or ignore these priorities in generating the results.

3. Show Event's Overall Likelihoods

Enabling this button shows the likelihoods of the events due to the top node, instead of the lower node currently selected on the left hierarchy tree. This icon is disabled when the top node is currently selected on the tree.