Overall Risks


Overview

This page displays the Overall Likelihoods, Impacts, and Risks of each Event.

Overall Likelihoods, Impacts, and Risks of Events

The results for the "All  Participants" group are displayed by default as indicated in the column name. Below the group name is the result columns for Likelihood, Impact, and Risk. 

Select Participants and Groups

By clicking the  "Participants and Groups"   icon, you can select to display the results for participants or other groups.

After selecting participants and groups to display, click OK. New columns for the results will be displayed with the participant or group name as the column heading. 

Open Bow-tie diagram from Grid

Clicking the Event Name will open a modal that displays the bow-tie diagram for the selected event.

From the Bow-tie diagram, you analyze the likelihoods (left) and impacts (right) of the selected event (center). Click "Overall Bow-tie Diagram" for more details. 

Export Grid into excel or image format

You can export the grid into a .xlsx file by clicking

You can also export the results page into an image file (.png) by clicking

Show or Hide columns

You can select to show/hide columns using the column chooser: 

The events attributes can also be displayed on the grid, from above the "Event History" and "Risk Owner" are events attributes. 

Clicking the column header can sort the grid in ascending or descending order by that header.

You can reset the sorting by pressing the Ctrl key + clicking again the column header where the sorting is currently active. 

Show Monetary Values

You can show the Monetary Values for Impacts and Risks.

Clicking  will open a modal where you can specify the monetary values. 

Simulated vs Computed Event Likelihoods, Impacts, and Risks (Flaw of Averages)

The risk of an event is the product of the event's likelihood and impact.  However, the computed likelihood of an event may depend on the event being caused by more than one threat. If these threats are not mutually exclusive, then the computed likelihood, based on the occurrence of the event from several can exceed the actual likelihood.  If in the real world an event takes place due to one threat, it is irrelevant that it would have also occurred due to another threat had the first one not caused the event.  This 'if' condition is a non-linearity in computation. To arrive at the actual likelihood of an event, we can use simulations that will avoid the 'double counting'.

Similarly, an objective that suffers consequences from one event, may also suffer consequences from other events.  The consequences can be cumulative but they cannot exceed the entire value of the objective so that this is another non-linearity that can be addressed with simulation.

Riskion has an option to show computed and simulated results.

Calculated results are displayed by default, checking the Simulated checkbox displays the simulated results. 

If all events have at most one threat, or all threats are mutually exclusive,  then the computed and simulated event likelihoods will be the same --  but this is rarely the case.

If each objective has losses due to only one event, then the computed and simulated impacts will be the same -- but this is rarely the case.

Preferences

Click the button to open the display and simulation settings modal. 

  • Events Numbers - select from ID, Inder, or Rank 
  • Display Settings
    • Consequences simulation mode: Diluted or Undiluted 
    • WRT calculation (applicable only when a lower node is selected) 
    • Show Total Risk - show hide the Total Risk below the grid for Diluted 
    • Decimals 
    • Show cents of Monetary Values 
  • Simulation Settings
    • Number of trials
    • Seed
    • Keep Seed
    • User Source Groups
    • User Event Groups