Risk of Events From Threats with Controls


Overview

This page displays a similar grid as with the Risk of Events From Threats (without controls), but with added columns for results when Controls are in effect.

In Riskion, we refer to threats, causes, hazards, and sources interchangeably.  While they may have slightly different nuances depending on the context in which they are used, they serve the same purpose -- they are all threats/sources of risk (for Risk Events) or sources of opportunity (for Opportunity Events). 

In our sample model, we are using the terminology "Source(s)".

The Likelihoods, Impacts, and Risks of the events from Source "Human Factor"  without and with controls are displayed below:

The combined results for "All  Participants" are displayed by default. The W.O. (without ) Controls and With Controls are displayed below the "All Participants" column heading.

A Source is selected from the Sources Hierarchy at the left.

You can also select the top node "Sources" which will show the same results as with the Overall Risk Results page. 

The Events on the grid may vary depending on the contributions of the events given the selected source.

Select Participants and Groups

By default, the results shown are for the "All Participants" group. 

By selecting from the  "Participants and Groups"   icon, you can display the results for other participants or groups.

After selecting participants and groups to display, click OK.

Open Bow-tie diagram from Grid

Clicking the Event Name will open a modal that displays the bow-tie diagram for the selected event.

From the Bow-tie diagram, you analyze the likelihoods (left) and impacts (right) of the selected event (center) For Threats with controls.  Click "Bow-tie Diagram From Threats" for more details.


Export Grid into excel or image format

You can export the grid into a .xlsx file by clicking

You can also export the results page into an image file (.png) by clicking

Show or Hide columns

You can show/hide columns both for:

  • the main results grid at the right, and 
  • the hierarchy tree at the left

For the main results grid, click the column chooser at the top of the grid: 

Simply check/uncheck the column(s) you want to show/hide. 

The events attributes can also be displayed on the grid, from above the "Event History" and "Risk Owner" are events attributes. 

For the Sources Hierarchy, click also the column choose on its top: 

Here you can select:

  • ID - Source ID 
  • Source Name
  • Description - source's description or information document 
  • Local and Global - local or global likelihoods of the sources based on the selected participant/group judgments

Sort by Column

Clicking the column header can sort the grid in ascending or descending order by that header. 

You can reset the sorting by pressing the Ctrl key on your keyboard and clicking again the column header where the sorting is currently active. 

Select Multiple Source Nodes 

Instead of showing results only from one WRT Source, you can also select multiple source nodes at once. 

To enable multi-select, click the multi-select icon at the top of the Sources Hierarchy. By doing so, you will see checkboxes to the right of the source names where you can select the WRT source nodes you want to see the results. 

A new column, WRT Source, will be displayed on the main results grid to indicate the WRT nodes for each event. 

From above, we can see the likelihoods, impacts, and risks of the events WRT the Overall Sources (top-node), Human Factor, and Environmental. 

You can also group the grid by WRT source for better display, this is done by dragging the WRT column header to the top left of the grid: 

Show Monetary Values

You can show the Monetary Values for Impacts and Risks.

Clicking  will open a modal where you can specify the monetary values. 

Simulated vs Computed Event Likelihoods, Impacts, and Risks (Flaw of Averages)

The risk of an event is the product of the event's likelihood and impact.  However, the computed likelihood of an event may depend on the event being caused by more than one threat. If these threats are not mutually exclusive, then the computed likelihood, based on the occurrence of the event from several can exceed the actual likelihood.  If in the real world an event takes place due to one threat, it is irrelevant that it would have also occurred due to another threat had the first one not caused the event.  This 'if' condition is a non-linearity in computation. To arrive at the actual likelihood of an event, we can use simulations that will avoid the 'double counting'.

Similarly, an objective that suffers consequences from one event, may also suffer consequences from other events.  The consequences can be cumulative but they cannot exceed the entire value of the objective so that this is another non-linearity that can be addressed with simulation.

Riskion has an option to show computed and simulated results.

Calculated results are displayed by default, checking the Simulated checkbox displays the simulated results. 

If all events have at most one threat, or all threats are mutually exclusive,  then the computed and simulated event likelihoods will be the same --  but this is rarely the case.

If each objective has losses due to only one event, then the computed and simulated impacts will be the same -- but this is rarely the case.

Preferences

Click the button to open the display and simulation settings modal. 

  • Events Numbers - select from ID, Inder, or Rank 
  • Display Settings
    • Consequences simulation mode: Diluted or Undiluted 
    • WRT calculation (applicable only when a lower node is selected) 
    • Show Total Risk - show hide the Total Risk below the grid for Diluted 
    • Decimals 
    • Show cents of Monetary Values 
  • Simulation Settings
    • Number of trials
    • Seed
    • Keep Seed
    • User Source Groups
    • User Event Groups